10) #1 GEORGIA AT TENNESSEE – 12:30PM PT/3:30PM ET [CBS]
Georgia’s defense is built for championships, but their offense has some flaws. Tennessee has leverage at home but need a lot of help from their defense. Collapsing Georgia’s offensive line against the run and pass, pressuring quarterback J.T. Daniels or Stetson Bennett, and limiting passing options are the first steps to beating Georgia. However, Tennessee’s improved offense outplaying Georgia’s immovable defense is a much bigger step.
9) #19 PURDUE AT #4 OHIO STATE – 12:30PM PT/3:30PM ET [ABC]
The Purdue Boilermakers (or Spoilermakers) have been a dangerous problem in the passing game on offense and containing passes on defense. Oddly enough, Purdue won three of the last five against Ohio State since 2009. Ohio State must be aware of it after a hard fought battle with Nebraska. Purdue’s offense is exposed against the pass rush (Ohio State’s major advantage). Purdue must play at the same level like they did to upset Iowa’s and Michigan State’s defense, while containing quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offense as much as possible.
8) WASHINGTON STATE AT #3 OREGON – 7:30PM PT/10:30PM ET [ESPN]
Oregon averted another upset but may have another challenge on their hands with Washington State. The Cougars won four of the past five games and scored over 30 points in three of the past four after starting the season 1-3. Quarterback Jayden de Laura is trustworthy and the team is one win away from bowl-eligibility. Jayden and running backs Max Borghi and Deon McIntosh must do a lot to outplay Oregon’s defense for a major road upset and a bowl berth.
7) UAB AT MARSHALL – 12:30PM PT/3:30PM ET [CBS SPORTS NETWORK]
UAB and Marshall are staying alive for their separate division titles. The last three weeks of the regular season, including this matchup, will be the toughest stretch of their season lives. Marshall overcame a 7-13 deficit to clean house in the third quarter with a 28-13 win in Boca Raton. UAB had running back Dewayne McBride carry the offense with four touchdowns in a surprising high-scoring victory over Louisiana Tech. Both teams win while not allowing much points but someone will break. UAB has the better roster, their defense travels, and they are capable of scoring points.
6) NORTH CAROLINA AT #21 PITTSBURGH – 4:30PM PT/7:30PM ET [ESPN ON THURSDAY]
North Carolina’s upset over Wake Forest was a major statement that this program needed. Pitt bounced back after an upset loss to Miami to blowout UNC’s rival, Duke. Both come in featuring two future NFL quarterbacks (UNC’s Sam Howell and Pitt’s Kenny Pickett) along with high-scoring offenses. Both teams are vulnerable defensively, but UNC has the short end with one of the worse defenses in the conference and country. The Heels will battle as hard as possible behind Howell, but it won’t be enough to outplay Pitt, and their defense will do enough to stop the Heels from achieving back-to-back upsets.
5) MINNESOTA AT #20 IOWA – 12:30PM PT/3:30PM ET [BIG TEN NETWORK]
Minnesota was stifled by Bret Bielema’s surprising Illinois squad and lost. Their offense was out of place and couldn’t capitalize a comeback run. That may be a problem when they face Iowa’s nationally ranked defense in Kinnick Stadium, one of the toughest stadiums in the nation. Iowa somewhat bounced back after going 0-2 when allowing 24 points or more back-to-back. They made changes to their quarterback and their backup, Alex Padilla, was consistent enough to stave off an upset. Minnesota and Iowa are good on defense, but their offense sputters consistently. It’ll likely be a low-scoring game (last three meetings at Kinnick were decided by seven points or less) and special teams will play an important role. Iowa will win this game behind a better defense and hopefully with better offensive consistency with Padilla.
4) #11 TEXAS A&M AT #15 OLE MISS – 4PM PT/7PM ET [ESPN]
Texas A&M defeated Auburn to stay alive for a potential West title. They have to cross their fingers for another Alabama loss to obtain it, but they must stay focus on winning to ensure their opportunity. A&M built themselves into one of the best defenses in the conference and nation after a few years. Their offense also found some consistency after quarterback Zach Calzada became comfortable as the starter. Ole Miss bounced back with a win over Liberty, but they’re looking for a statement victory in the SEC. They are far from playoff contention and less than likely able to win the West, but they could play spoiler to A&M. It is possible Ole Miss could force A&M into a scoring battle, but they’re not good against good defenses. Alabama and Auburn made that clear (both allowed on average 20 points or less per game). Even though Ole Miss is at home for this challenge, they will encounter the same obstacle against A&M’s defense (allowed 14.9 points per game) and it’s possible they will lose to them too.
3) NEVADA AT #22 SAN DIEGO STATE – 7:30PM PT/10:30PM ET [CBS SPORTS NETWORK]
For those that read my past two blogs, HERE WE ARE! The third and final best game in the West division of the Mountain West. Fresno State’s loss last week turned this matchup into the battle for first place in the West. Nevada and San Diego State avoided a loss last week to be in position for this moment. Nevada has one of the best offenses in the conference led by future NFL quarterback, Carson Strong. The team goes as he goes and they attack across the field at will. San Diego State comes in with one of the best defenses in the conference and they make life difficult for most opposing offenses. San Diego State has leverage at home, but Fresno State’s offense never faltered and showed no mercy to win there. Nevada plans to do the same but they can’t win with just their offense, and here’s why. Historically, Nevada is 6-0 all-time, including the winners of three straight meetings, when playing good defense. When they don’t, they’re 0-7 all-ime. Nevada has defense and San Diego State’s offense hasn’t scored over 20 points in the past four games despite going 3-1 thus far. Nevada has enough offense to break them apart but the key to defeating the Aztecs is stopping the run.
2) #16 NC STATE AT #12 WAKE FOREST – 4:30PM PT/7:30PM ET [ACC NETWORK]
The ACC Atlantic features two teams that could win this division and break Clemson’s 6-year streak. Quarterbacks Devin Leary and Sam Hartman matchup for the first time. Both started in previous matchups in the past two seasons, but never against each other. Both lost as starters once and someone is looking to get their first win against each other to take control of the division outright. Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the nation while NC State has one of the best scoring defenses in the nation. However, Wake lost an offensive battle to North Carolina and now must face their first true test against a strong defense. NC State allowed around 16 points per game and makes their opponents work for every yard. If Mississippi State and Miami were able to expose NC State, it’s possible Wake Forest can too. The Demon Deacons defense must shut down Devin Leary because he’s turning into a major threat against defenses after throwing eight touchdowns in the past two games.
1) #8 OKLAHOMA AT #13 BAYLOR – 9AM PT/12PM ET [FOX]
While Oklahoma scratched and clawed their way to nine wins, Baylor quietly sucker punched their way to the Top 25 and trying to make a statement in the Big 12 and the nation again. Oklahoma hasn’t always been impressive, but when the game is on the line, they get the job done no matter what. That’s why quarterback Caleb Williams was the starter in the past four games and knows what’s at stake for the Sooners. The offense still averages 42.9 points per game and scored over 35 in the past five, including scoring over 50 points in three of those five. The Sooners defense are making impactful plays at the right time and their plus 8 turnover margin does not lie (tied 11th in the nation). Baylor is balanced on offense and defense, and they show toughness in every game despite two losses. They are a hard out thanks to coach Dave Aranda turning up the competition in Year 2, and their defense will be the side that either wins or loses the game. Oklahoma are not only battling for a spot in the Big 12 title game, but they’re also battling for a playoff spot too. Baylor could play spoiler to their run, but Oklahoma have always found a way to win and needs all sides of the ball to defeat Baylor.
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