Every team in the conference and at-large spots are all locked up and safely secured for the 2021 season. Unfortunately, COVID protocols due to this Delta variant could impact some players and teams this season, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take this time. In a couple of weeks, I’ll have the previews for each conference previewing each team for the upcoming season. I could still feature the Top 5 Games to Watch each week, but I won’t continue to provide that information after concluding it after last season. Stay tuned for more information on the Underrated Rules this weekend and then the previews a couple of weeks after.
LOCKS
SMU (AAC WEST) – The Ponies had a chance to make the conference championship before losing the last two games of the season, including to conference title runner-up Tulsa. They return 20 plus starters and add two Oklahoma transfers that could make an impact on offense (QB Tanner Mordecai and TE Grant Calcaterra) and also have freshmen quarterback Preston Stone, who received plenty of attention amongst the roster. They must overcome a six-game road schedule in nine weeks, including a gauntlet November schedule at Memphis, home game against UCF, at Cincinnati, and home regular season finale against Tulsa.
TCU – The Big 12 is predicted to have the usual top four teams by season’s end: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Texas. TCU finishes behind them, but something tells me they’re playing spoiler to one of those four, which would be critical since Oklahoma and Iowa State are considered playoff contenders this season. Their offense should improve with Max Duggan’s return and TCU’s defense always makes an impact in big time games. No matter what, there will be one or two games that TCU will aim for the upset victory.
WESTERN KENTUCKY (C-USA EAST) – A tough choice between them and Middle Tennessee. It didn’t make things easier when both teams have quarterbacks named Bailey (Zappe for Western Kentucky and Hockman for Mid Tenn). Both are experienced but Hockman started games as an FBS/Power 5 player for NC State. However, I chose the Hilltoppers based on the presence and leadership of defensive end DeAngelo Malone. Pass rushing in this conference is sorely needed and Malone makes the difference for the defense, and hopefully it gives the new defensive backs time to jell. Also, the team brought in Houston Baptist offensive coordinator Zach Kittley (who coached up Zappe) to hopefully turn up the offense that struggled to average in scoring consistently.
MIAMI OF OHIO (MAC EAST) – The Redhawks high hopes for 2020 was lost over three cancelled games due to COVID in a six-game season. They finished at 2-1 with their only loss to Buffalo. Coming off a conference championship season in 2019, they look to retake their title with vets and experience that were a part of that run. Their division surprisingly lightens up due to Ohio’s and Buffalo’s coaching staff undergoing changes. Their only obstacle is overcoming a potential 1-3 or 2-2 start in non-conference play and battling Kent State in the season finale to determine who wins the East division.
WESTERN MICHIGAN (MAC WEST) – The Broncos are expected to finish fourth in the division, but they have experience and talent on both sides to contend for the West division title. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby intends to make more of an impact on offense and could be looked at by NFL scouts. They have important matchups in six straight games, and five of them are against the MAC’s top teams. Their success comes down to the defense’s improvement.
NEW MEXICO (MWC MOUNTAIN) – It’s a farfetched choice, but New Mexico could make small, overall improvements. First, defensive coordinator Rocky Long is one of the best and could make that side the strength of the team. They also have a plus four turnover ratio (team-best since 2015 and were bowl-eligible that season). Second, quarterback Terry Wilson arrives from Kentucky with a quarterback percentage of 64.4 in three seasons. That by itself brings optimism to the Lobos’ offense that hasn’t had a quarterback playing with that percentage consistently in over 16 seasons. And finally third, while there’s no promise of bowl-eligibility, they could win at least four games and scare a couple of Mountain West teams on the way.
CALIFORNIA (PAC-12 NORTH) – It was one of the most difficult divisions of any conference to tell who stands out as the true underrated team. Honestly, I had four of them excluding Oregon and Washington State, but Cal seemed plausible. Defense will be the strength again to duel Washington and Oregon for the North division. Of the six teams in the North, Cal has THE starting quarterback. This team succeeded against Washington twice (2018 and 2019) and upset Oregon for their one and only win of the season. However, the offense averaged 21 points in three seasons, scored over 30 points five times in that span, and didn’t have a 30-point game at all last season. Despite having the most experienced offense of any Pac-12 team, those numbers must improve if they want to surprise the college football world with a division title.
KENTUCKY (SEC EAST) – Despite losing quarterback Terry Wilson to New Mexico, the Wildcats should adapt as long as they have a physical run game to complement the next starting quarterback. The depth on defense will be tested, but they should be fine with key returns at each level. Kentucky has a very tough October schedule, but their season should hopefully end with seven to eight wins. If a starting quarterback plays out well, they could lurk for a couple of more wins by way of upsets.
OLE MISS (SEC WEST) – The Positive: Rebels once again has THE lethal offense in the SEC and could be one of the best again with experienced skilled players and four returning offensive line. Quarterback Lane Kiffin plans to dial up more ways to score on their opponents. The Negative: This defense barely intimidates rain water. Where does their success come from and who comes through for them? Just doing enough is a start. They are a possible six-win team with bowl aspirations, but all eyes will be on Matt Corral, his receivers, and the entire defensive unit.
GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT EAST) – The Sun Belt conference looks formidable these days, especially the East. While Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State contends for the title, Georgia State could find themselves in the middle of the fray. They have experience on both sides, a returning quarterback that will be better and could be up for All-Sun Belt honors, and should make their third bowl appearance. Key wins against Sun Belt opponents could set them up for a division title run.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (AT-LARGE) – It’s hard to overlook the Eagles. They have been pesky against Appalachian State and Louisiana for three seasons. Even Coastal Carolina shouldn’t overlook them. Georgia Southern lost quarterback Shai Werts after transferring to Louisville, but coach Chad Lunsford seems to trust Justin Tomlin as the next man after a few reps as backup for two seasons. How they were picked to finish last in the conference is beyond me, but they should still have a dangerous run game with their offensive front entirely intact. Don’t forget that they should still be one of the top four defenses in the conference.
KENT STATE (AT-LARGE) – I kept a close eye on the Golden Flashes since late 2018 when Woody Barrett was the quarterback. Once he went down and Dustin Crum started, the team became dangerous in the MAC conference. They ripped off four straight wins to finish off their season, including a bowl win over Jordan Love and Utah State in 2019. Then they finish 3-1 in a shortened 2020 season despite Ohio and Miami (OH) cancelling Kent State’s final two games. The team once again threatens the division and potentially the conference with Crum being a potential NFL quarterback.
WEST VIRGINIA (AT-LARGE) – The last to make the At-Large bid and could be the team to not overlook in the Big 12. The offense looks to improve now that quarterback Jarret Doege had time in the offseason. The defense lost key guys like Tykee Smith, Dreshun Miller, Darius Stills, Jeffrey Pooler and Tony Fields. However, they shored up those spots in a pinch during the offseason. They have a tough, yet winnable non-conference schedule before going to Oklahoma. Assuming they lose in Norman, they still have a shot against the other three that are expected to finish in the Top 4 (Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Texas). They are also reluctant to host all three of them in their four-game stretch starting in late October.
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