RESULTS AFTER THE SEMIFINALS: 2-0, ORDER RESTORED! [6-4 OVERALL]

#10 MIAMI VS. #1 INDIANA

4:30PM PT/7:30PM ET [ESPN]

For about 2-plus decades, all of us were used to the National Championship obvious. What I mean by that is Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, etc appear there over and over and over. After one of them wins the whole thing, the mindset was when will they return and how? They’re the most dominant team in the country. Can anyone on their schedule, in the conference, or in the postseason or championship stop them from creating a dynasty. We were so used to it, but then everything changed since COVID.

It started with Michigan breaking the powerhouses’ consistencies. Then came an expanded playoff, creating opportunities for 10 other teams to potentially win it all. While Ohio State won the whole thing first last season, they were not #1 in the country. Boise State got the first-round bye as a Group of Five representative. Arizona State wasn’t even in the Top 10 as the Big 12 representative and were that close to making the semifinals. Heck, Notre Dame was a non-conference team that made a National Championship appearance. 4 Home Teams not only won the first round, but they all took down the bye teams too. This season, we had 2 Group of Five teams qualify for the postseason. Miami and Alabama were the first road playoff teams to advance to the next round. Miami was the last team in that nearly didn’t qualify to defeat 2 SEC teams and former National Champion Ohio State. Meanwhile, Indiana (of all teams) destroyed the branded programs we are used to seeing in the postseason and go on a record pace to play for the championship.

If you’ve come this far, you see that so much changed since the playoff’s expansion along with the transfer portal and NIL (for better or for worse). This is finally the season where anyone has optimism for a CFP appearance if they make the right moves and have all the breaks possible. As we sit here about to watch one of these two teams win the National Championship, we take a look back at each team’s path to the National Championship.

MIAMI‘S PATH

Since Mario Cristobal arrived on campus, he wanted to change the way Miami played football back when he played there. He also wanted to add more physicality and bring back the reputation of the U to what it once was but in the modern age of college football. However, their one problem was finishing the season. They had opportunities in 2023 and 2024, but November was their downfall. Even at that very moment this season, they outlasted Notre Dame, ended USF’s surprising start, dismantled Florida, and outplayed Florida State. But then another slipup came as they fell short against Louisville in October and SMU in November. Those losses were due to Carson Beck’s mistakes. Despite defeating Notre Dame way back in Week 1 and obliterating their remaining schedule, they were on pins and needles hoping to qualify as they slowly moved up the rankings. After plenty of drama and anxiety, they were the last At-Large team to qualify for the postseason and never looked back.

They went into what seemed like a hurricane environment in College Station and survived Texas A&M. They followed up with a tough, but satisfying upset victory over Ohio State. Finally, they closed things out in one of college football’s classics against Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss. This game was a big-time moment for Carson Beck to atone his mistakes in the regular season. Now, Miami hosts the National Championship and are a win away from making history.

INDIANA’S PATH

I’m a broken record for using Curt Cignetti’s motto, but I’m using it again. “Google Me. I win.” The man hasn’t had a losing record since he was alongside coach Chuck Amato and his staff as an offensive coach at NC State. After Cignetti rode with Nick Saban to eventual success and a National Championship, he paved his own road for success at IUPUI, Elon, and James Madison and getting them to the FBS level with immediate success and even witnessing his former program make the college football playoff after just 4 seasons at that level. Now, him and Indiana haven’t done worse than 2 losses in his stint and are a win away from their first ever National Championship that will be a story book ending for the program.

This season was the high mark of Indiana’s success that hasn’t been done in their existence. Prior to back-to-back 10-plus wins and big postseason appearances (first in program history), they won no more than 9 games and their only big bowl appearances were the Rose Bowl and Peach Bowl. They went from 0-3 in those settings all-time to 2-0 in those…same exact environments. What a full circle thanks to Coach Cigs. Let’s add them going undefeated thus far, defeating Ohio State to win the Big Ten title game, win their first ever Heisman with a quarterback who put up program record numbers, and wrecking big time brands Alabama and Oregon in dominant fashion. Indiana’s close to being on the pinnacle of college football success in the 12-Team Playoff era for others after to try replicating their foundation and success moving forward.

THE MATCHUP!

Plenty of Miami’s success this season came from freshmen phenom receiver Malachi Toney, edge stars Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, running back Mark Fletcher, defensive back Keionte Scott, and quarterback Carson Beck. They’ve proven to be the grittiest team and won’t lament no matter the adversity. They’ve won all their close games in the postseason against Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss, and either their defense, their quarterback, or Malachi Toney were the reasons they came through. Outside of two losses, they’re likely one of the two best teams in the nation. Now, being home gives them all the homefield advantage possible to hopefully slow down Indiana.

Indiana was successful last season, but they felt there was more to do. I think the Big Ten competition and postseason feel gave Cignetti, the athletic director, and the front office an idea on how to build on their success. Cignetti has experienced players and James Madison players back, but it wasn’t enough. They went after a few key transfers, including Fernando Mendoza and Roman Hemby before going on an unbelievable run. However, they were challenged from start to finish in the regular season, including the Big Ten title. They overcame those adversities, conquered them, and now look like the best team. They proved it thus far after slamming the door shut on Alabama’s hindquarters and cooking the Ducks in the first 11 seconds of the game. They might be a road team in Miami, but they’re still favored and Fernando Mendoza gets to show his prowess in his home state.

Now, that I said my mouthful, let’s talk winner. The two Nick Saban disciples are known for their gritty, physical football. Both coaches want physicality and they want to be the better team in all phases of the game. They both have quarterbacks that can lead their team, a solid run game, players that can conquer the trenches, talented pass catchers, and defenses to impact the game. The difference is that Miami technically has homefield advantage. Is that always a good thing? Usually, but I’m not 100% sure that’ll help. Indiana’s been so far and distant the better team since the postseason started. They have everything needed to win it all. However, their difference is depth. They’ve had a few injuries that led to limitations in certain positions. They have depth in parts of some positions, but not all of them. Miami could easily use time of possession to wear down their roster. So, who wins the game? Indiana because they’ve played the most complete football from the start of their first postseason game. They haven’t made many mistakes and forced more on their opponents. More importantly, Mendoza’s been the most surgical quarterback from the start of the postseason. While time of possession is key in this matchup, Miami has the most penalties amongst 12 teams in the postseason. The Canes managed to get this far despite it, but it’ll eventually rear its ugly head with a lack of discipline in front of their home fans.

MY PICK: INDIANA