FRIDAY

Alabama and Oklahoma have had weird paths coming into the postseason. Alabama was turbulent after the Florida State loss and hasn’t looked the same since. Yes, they ran through ranked opponents and won games they were supposed to win, but they have looked anything but your typical intimidating program we were all used to for 2 decades. The fact they made the postseason is a massive stroke of luck. Meanwhile, Oklahoma looked like they had some optimism with John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. They showed promise through the first four games, but then they entered SEC play with similar results like last season (with “micro” improvement). Since Mateer suffered his hand injury against Auburn, the offense didn’t look the same. They did survive their toughest schedule, including tearing down Tennessee and Alabama on the road, and taming the Tigers of Missouri and LSU to make the postseason. All of this wouldn’t have been possible if it weren’t for their elite defense.

This is one of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend (if not potentially zany and dramatic). Both teams clash for the third time in two seasons with Oklahoma owning the meeting 2-0 since becoming an SEC team. The last time they met at Norman, Alabama scored 3 points. It’s possible they score more because they have Ty Simpson. However, they’ve struggled against Oklahoma’s defense the last two meetings with the possibility of it happening again at Norman. While coach Kalen DeBoer with Alabama have a postseason history, so does Brent Venables with a championship pedigree as a Clemson defensive coordinator and a co-defensive coordinator for Oklahoma two decades ago. Unless Alabama has an answer in the run game (with DANIEL HILL!!!), this might not look good for their team again. I’m biased and see Oklahoma winning their third straight game against Bama and winning their first ever CFP game in 5 appearances because of their defense and John Mateer.

MY PICK: OKLAHOMA

SATURDAY

After a couple of tries to make the CFP, Miami finally finds their way in (by luck and head-to-head victory against Notre Dame that held strong). Mario Cristobal got this team humming on defense and looking strong on the offensive line with skills positions playing dominant. The schedule was easy, but Carson Beck’s mistakes made it not so easy and cost them two wins. Texas A&M did about the same except they adapted and adjusted. No matter the situation, Texas A&M seems to have an answer to almost everything. What makes this team go? Quarterback Marcel Reed, and they’ll need him upright against Miami’s stout defense. If he isn’t on, the team could be in trouble.

Both crossed paths twice in 2022 and 2023 in home-and-home matchups and both won theirs. The obvious seems to favor Texas A&M, but how sure are we? After the loss to Texas, could this psychologically affect their performance despite being at home? Miami’s defense travels well and they won’t lose games. They have proven to be one of the best in the country led by edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. This should be a good matchup to where this game comes down to quarterback play. Again, it seems obvious that A&M has leverage at home where Reed is most comfortable. I wouldn’t think so. The game might be close, but it’s likely Marcel will make a tad more mistakes than Carson Beck and Miami’s defense put a late stranglehold on him and tear down their offense in the end.

MY PICK: MIAMI

If no one’s aware of this matchup, both teams have a long, LONG history dating back to 1893. We all assume Ole Miss dominated this series for a long time (mostly true). It didn’t start out that way until 1941 when Tulane was once an SEC team. Yes, that American conference team was once an SEC team. Prior to Tulane’s sudden rise, they only had three successful 10-win seasons between 1931 and 1998. Before coach Willie Fritz left for Houston, he helped start the program’s sudden rise that turned into three 10-win seasons in 4 years. Now, they’re in their first CFP with a lot working against them. Ole Miss makes their first CFP after coming up short last season when they couldn’t defeat Bama or Georgia. Now, they had one less tough SEC opponent on their schedule, which made them a bit more optimistic about their CFP chances. This group is talented and have proven to be a hard out.

It now begs the question, who is Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin? They still have quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, Austin Simmons, Kewan Lacy, and the rest of the roster to make up a deadly offense. They were reluctant enough to keep the rest of the coaching staff for the CFP run. Defense should still be good enough to compete. But with defensive coordinator Pete Golding taking the interim head coach role, does this change their defensive strategy on that end? How does Golding handle it all? They face Tulane in a rematch and quarterback Jake Retzlaff is looking to take on more responsibility of the offense and the team, but I doubt the result will be different. Will Ole Miss have a plan and mindset for this rematch?

MY PICK: OLE MISS

Welcome to the party, James Madison! After just 4 years in the FBS, they make the postseason and thank Curt Cignetti for leaving behind a lasting foundation for this program to maintain. This team hasn’t won less than 8 games since jumping to the FBS. Coach Bob Chesney may have taken the UCLA job, but he’ll coach JMU through the postseason. Of all teams playing this weekend, Oregon’s the only team to make their second straight CFP appearance. This time, they’re playing the first round, they aren’t undefeated, and they’re not Big Ten champions or the #1 seed. That should be a good thing knowing they won’t be blindsided by Ohio State again. Anyway, Oregon’s defense is legit, the team’s more physical, and they’re not afraid of any team and proved it against the likes of Indiana, Penn State, and Iowa. However, they haven’t faced a tough non-conference opponent, so we’ll find out what this young offense is capable of in the postseason.

This seems like a big discrepancy. While James Madison proved they’re not intimidated by a Power 4 opponent (2-1 against the Power 4), this might be by far their toughest opponent in their FBS program history. They’re not a Big Ten team and we’re not sure if this roster can keep up with Oregon in the trenches. Despite having two tough-minded quarterbacks in Alonza Barnett III and Matt Sluka, it’s a daunting task against that vaunted Oregon defense. What could make this a close game is James Madison’s defense shutting down the run game and pressuring quarterback Dante Moore asap and often. James Madison playing as similar performance as they did to Louisville (minus the mistakes) could create chaos in the postseason. Otherwise, Oregon likely moves on to face Texas Tech.

MY PICK: OREGON