There’s no surprise for the Mountain West this season. Boise State is the outright favorite to win it all. They might even go a step further if things go their way early on the schedule.

Air Force, Fresno State, and San Diego State will battle for the Mountain West title appearance and the crown. Wyoming and San Jose State could have a say if their sides of the ball improve. Colorado State could be a surprise if their offensive line improves. Nevada, Utah State, and UNLV must take steps to make bowl-eligibility while Hawai’i and New Mexico could end up bottom feeders.

More than half of the Mountain West teams had good defense last season minus turnovers and offensive inefficiencies that hurt them. Half of them compiled an average 19.8 points allowed. This season should be about the same, but one team on the offensive side hopes to have enough leverage to control and win the Mountain West this season.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Boise ties for most starting returns in the conference next to Wyoming. There’s plenty of experience and talent on offense and defense. However, quarterback Taylen Green must improve to stand out as the best quarterback in the conference. The offense returns all their pass catchers and running backs from last season and could stand out as one of the best combined in the conference. Defense should be fine, but there’s some areas of concern in the secondary. The front seven needs new leadership after JL Skinner departed for the NFL. Boise could dominate the conference again, but their defense and quarterback are question marks as they dive deep into conference play.

AIR FORCE FALCONS

No one wants to steal the division title more than Air Force. They’re also looking for their first 3-time 10-win season in program history. The offense has potential to be one of the best coming from a team that runs the triple-option. The quarterback position is up for grabs, and the potential starter gets to man an experienced offensive line and backfield. Like Boise, defense should be fine, but depth will be tested. If they manage the physical part of conference competition, Air Force could likely win the division.

WYOMING COWBOYS

Wyoming plays an interesting part in the Mountain. Their defense is likely the strength again, but there’s potential that this offense improves this year. It all starts with the run game led by Northern Illinois transfer Harrison Waylee. He steadily improved each season with NIU, including carving 179 yards for two touchdowns against the Cowboys in 2021. This addition helps starting quarterback Andrew Peasley. The quarterback position is a major need after Josh Allen’s departure, and Peasley must make steady improvement as a game manager for Wyoming to threaten Air Force and Boise State. Last season, they defeated Air Force while losing a close one to Boise. The offense must average more than 21 points in conference play to compete for the division title.

COLORADO STATE RAMS

The Rams also play an interesting part in the Mountain. You won’t like my comments because I’m a Nevada alumnus and wasn’t happy that Jay Norvell and a quarter of Nevada’s roster left for Colorado State. Last season, the Rams offense was one of the worst in the conference and I WITNESSED IT when they played UNR last season. Their offense couldn’t even borrow a touchdown and needed their defense to pay the fees. But if anyone can improve this offense in Year 2, it would be Jay Norvell and quarterback Clay Millen. Millen was the most efficient quarterback last season despite playing 10 games (72.2). His overall numbers should improve if the offensive line protects him and keeps him upright. Millen also has plenty of returning, reliable pass catchers. An overall offensive improvement makes their defense one of the best in the conference and gives this team a chance to steal the Mountain division.

UTAH STATE AGGIES

Utah State’s undergoing a retooling process across the depth chart despite some success last season. Both offense and defense must fill the void in several areas after a subpar season. Quarterback Cooper Legas must improve in production for Utah State’s offense to stay competitive. The rest of the players like Terrell Vaughn, Josh Sterzer, and Robert Briggs should improve in offensive production too. Defense must improve to have a chance against teams like Boise State and Air Force. Most importantly, the run defense must come through after allowing nearly 200 yards per game last season.

NEW MEXICO LOBOS

New Mexico is in for another rough season. They lost a considerable amount of starters last season, especially on defense. However, holdovers from last season should have more opportunity. They also add portal players like quarterback Dylan Hopkins, pass catchers Jeremiah Hixon, D.J. Washington, and Magnus Geers to hopefully make a jump in offensive production. The positive for New Mexico’s offense is that they return plenty of experience on the offensive line. Can the defense maintain production despite returning four starters from last year, including linebacker Tavian Combs? The secondary could be one of the best in the conference, but they need the front seven to back them up against the run and pass rush. The Lobos could slightly improve on wins but must get lucky in a few of toss-ups against New Mexico State, Hawai’i, Nevada, and UNLV to try for bowl-eligibility.

WEST DIVISION

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

San Diego State has the best odds to appear in the conference championship. Their defense is as solid and consistent as they come. They haven’t had a bad season in nearly a decade and that trend should continue. However, the offense must bounce back after a subpar season. The main reason is the run game, which had one of the worst performances in over a decade. No back ran over 400 yards alone, and that must change. As for quarterback Jalen Mayden, the former safety from two seasons ago must improve and play controlled and consistent football. His three interceptions cost them a bowl win against Mid Tenn, so that must be cleaned up. The offense must improve overall to play for the division title and a Mountain West title.

SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS

The Spartans could win the division because they return enough offensive starters that had the fourth best production in the conference. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro is the best returning quarterback in the conference and has one more shot to cement himself amongst the conference. He has an experienced group on the offensive line, backfield, and at receiver. The run game needs slight improvement, but that’s a minimal concern. Defense was one of the best for a few seasons, but leaders Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall are in the NFL now. While the front seven works to fill some spots, the secondary is the strength after forcing 14 interceptions. The Spartans could play for a conference championship with the plenty of returns and talent along with Chevan Cordeiro manning the helm. Winning home games against Air Force, Utah State, Fresno State, and San Diego State puts them in to the conference championship.

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

The Bulldogs might take a step back after losing Jake Haener, Jordan Mims, and the top four receivers in Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Nikko Remigio, Zane Pope, and Josh Kelly (Washington State). However, quarterback Logan Fife returns and started a few games while Haener was out with injury, but UCF transfer Mikey Keene gains momentum for the starting job. Running back Malik Sharrod takes over alongside Elijah Gilliam and Cal transfer Damien Moore. Receiver room is small for now, but Erik Brooks has experience and should gain more attention alongside Ohio State transfer Jaelen Gill. Defense has optimism with returns, including Isaiah Johnson and Levelle Bailey. Fresno is in a three-way dogfight with the Spartans and Aztecs, but if the offense continues success with new guys, Fresno will have a say in the Mountain West and make the Pac-12 look twice.

NEVADA WOLFPACK

At the beginning of the offseason, Nevada looked like a 4-win team. After the spring game, they could surprise with six or seven wins with an interesting roster and a seemingly lighter Mountain West schedule, including two non-conference games against Idaho and Texas State. The positives: a stack full of running backs with speedy Sean Dollars, an underrated receiving group led by Jamaal Bell, a good secondary led by Jaden Dedman, and two good linebackers in Drue Watts and Oregon transfer (and Spanish Springs kid) Jackson LaDuke. Special teams will be the forefront of this unit for points and field position. The negatives: an unproven quarterback and a reworking line on offense and defense. The negatives must be addressed for Nevada to play for a bowl this season. Let’s go!!!

UNLV REBELS

UNLV surprised the nation and conference early with a 4-1 record and 2-0 conference surge. The rest of their schedule gave them a reality check and the Rebels finished 5-7 overall with six straight losses with just one win against my alma mater (Nevada). The early success was thanks to quarterback Doug Brumfield, running back Aidan Robbins, and receivers Kyle Williams, Ricky White, and Nick Williams. Now, Brumfield and Ricky White are the only starters back while Robbins (BYU), Kyle (Washington State), and Nick (graduated) are gone. The offensive line wasn’t that great last season (allowed 37 sacks) and had to add a couple of transfers to hopefully improve the protection. Defense played well to an extent with a plus six turnover ratio while scoring two touchdowns off of 15 interceptions (tied 1st in MW). Here’s the positive, the offense and defense could improve for a potential bowl season. But the bad news is that no one’s overlooking UNLV (even Nevada), and they must protect Brumfield while capitalizing on whatever opportunity the defense gives them.

HAWAI’I RAINBOW WARRIORS

My only thought of the Rainbow Warriors this season is their quarterback, Brayden Schager. It’s their best player and the offensive line must improve to protect him. As long as Schager’s on the field, the rest of the group goes as he goes. Defense must improve somewhere, and it all starts at linebacker. This could be the strength of positioning with Isaiah Tufaga and Logan Taylor commanding the middle. The secondary wasn’t bad, the front four is a concern. They struggled to stop the run and pass rush consistently. Hawai’i possibly finishes at the bottom next to New Mexico with a rough 2023 schedule unless progress is made on the trenches for both offense and defense.