FAVORITE TEAMS

The AAC moves on from Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati as those three enter the Big 12. However, six newcomers from the C-USA conference arrive: Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UTSA, and UAB. There’s now more Texas teams, three owl-based teams, a Florida replacement in FAU, and a consistently successful program in UAB. UTSA could easily take over the new conference, but Tulane has momentum after a massive upset over USC in a bowl game. UAB is a wild card depending on how Trent Dilfer fares as a new coach with a program in a new conference. Meanwhile, SMU, Memphis, ECU, and Tulsa are looking for leverage without the three former programs gone. Navy enters 2023 without Ken Niumatalolo after coaching for 15 seasons.

UTSA ROADRUNNERS

The Roadrunners jump into the AAC with a potentially seamless transition. They’re one of the favorites to debut in the AAC conference championship with the number of starters returning. Quarterback Frank Harris leads the group after tossing 4,063 yards and 32 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. He returns key guys on offense, but they will go without 3-time leading receiver Zakhari Franklin after he transferred (Ole Miss). They should have little to no difficulty running through their schedule. 10 wins is likely, but winning the AAC will net them a first ever New Year’s Six Bowl appearance.

TULANE GREEN WAVE

The Green Wave had a very successful last season. No one expected them to come into 2022 winning 10-plus games, win the conference championship, and defeat the nearly unstoppable Lincoln Riley-coached and unstoppable Caleb Williams-led USC Trojans in a New Year’s Six Bowl matchup. But they did it all, so expectations are much higher this season. Quarterback Michael Pratt returns after throwing for 20-plus touchdowns in three straight seasons. However, the offense will be without all-purpose running back Tyjae Spears (Titans) after accounting for 1269 rushing yards in the last eight games, including a 205-yard performance against USC. The offense should be as good this season, but the running back position could potentially hinder their success.

SMU MUSTANGS

SMU could steal the show from Tulane and/or UTSA. With Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF gone, the door opened for the Mustangs. Quarterback Preston Stone was a high-praised player for two seasons, but now it’s his time to shine. He’ll have Miami (FL) running back transfer Jaylan Knighton to compliment Stone while he develops confidence as a full-time starter. If the defense can make slight improvement, SMU could contend for the AAC title.

MEMPHIS TIGERS

Like SMU, Memphis has the opportunity to steal the show in the AAC with Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF gone. Three-time starter Seth Henigan will put the entire offense on his back for a potential conference title return since 2019. Their defense should prosper, but the defensive tackle position must be addressed. Luckily, they picked up a couple of transfers to help shore up the middle of the front four. The Tigers also dug into the portal for a running back to help compliment Henigan. However, Tulane, UAB, and SMU are the obstacles in their path for an AAC title run.

FAU OWLS

Whatever COVID did to FAU, they are a shell of their former selves. After winning 11 games twice in three seasons in 2017 and 2019, they went downhill. They won 15 games in the last three seasons and made one bowl during COVID season but lost that one. Willie Taggart’s gone but the Owls may have hired a better coach in Tom Herman. Herman was in the AAC as a Houston coach. He coached for two seasons but was successful with Houston (22-5). He’s back with FAU and has an opportunity to recruit well in the state of Florida and get them back on track. Their schedule’s a toss-up, but with a decent roster along with the acquisition of Casey Thompson from Nebraska (who was also his former recruit from Texas), anything’s possible for the Owls.

UAB BLAZERS

The Blazers former coach Bill Clark stepped away from football, but what he did for the program before hiatus and coming out of it will not be forgotten. He did what no other coach in UAB history ever did. But in comes new coach Trent Dilfer. No college coaching experience, but he did coach in high school. However, he’s walking into a program with high expectations and expects consistent, winning success. Former Blazers quarterback Dylan Hopkins transfers to New Mexico, so in comes Jacob Zeno (from Baylor). The team can probably net eight wins and steal more, but how will Trent Dilfer fare and handle all that pressure of success as the new coach? Is the team also bought in knowing they’re playing against AAC opponents?

NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN

North Texas fired coach Seth Littrell after seven seasons. He was a decent coach, but North Texas hasn’t won more than nine games per season. He’s also 0-5 in bowls, which doesn’t help the program’s confidence and development in each offseason. So, Eric Morris gets hired to run the team and switch to the Air Raid offense. More importantly, quarterback Chandler Rogers arrives from Southern Miss to potentially run it. That side should prosper, but their defense must improve after allowing 31.7 points per game. They also have a heck of a back-end schedule in the AAC, so bowl-eligibility will be challenging.

EAST CAROLINA PIRATES

How will East Carolina look without their long-time starting quarterback Holton Ahlers finally moving on? They also lost a lot of offensive playmakers across the board. However, last season’s backups Mason Garcia (QB), Marlon Gunn Jr. (RB), and Rahjai Harris (RB) had a few reps in the past season or two, so the backfield and pass catchers should prosper. Defense improved last season, but the passing defense has work cut out for them after ranking 128th in the country (291.8 pass yards allowed). East Carolina enjoyed their run for quite a bit, but their 2023 schedule looks difficult. Their pass defense must improve quickly since seven of their opponents throws the ball consistently.

RICE OWLS

Minus COVID season, Mike Bloomgren and Rice made steady progress each season. They won five games last season but were fortunate enough to receive a bowl invitation and get the experience again. They also gain a quarterback in journeyman JT Daniels, who arrives on his fourth team since 2018. The team has a legit shot at a bowl game, but Bloomgren must hope he puts everything together to win six plus games this season. If JT Daniels stays healthy and the rush defense improves in the AAC, the Owls will surprise the AAC conference.

TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE

Coach Kevin Wilson arrives believing he has his quarterback of the future (Braylon Braxton). He started five games, losing the first three averaging 133.33 yards per game before winning the last two averaging 309 yards per game. The offense could be a force, but let’s hope their roster survives Washington and Oklahoma. Defeating a recovering Northern Illinois could jump start their opportunity for a bowl run. What the offense could use is some assistance from their defense. Their rush defense struggled last season allowing a worst 208 yards per game. That side’s slight improvement can make Tulsa challenging against virtually any team in the AAC.

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

Navy goes through a new cast of coaches after Ken Niumatalolo was fired after last season. Things went downhill for Ken in the last three seasons, and failure to stay consistent in the AAC didn’t help his cause. Brian Newberry takes over after being Navy’s defensive coordinator since 2019. He plans to keep the triple-option but expand the playbook with the spread and pass just a bit more. Defense should be the strength until the offense gets acclimated. The quarterback position could be wide open for anyone. Xavier Arline and Tai Lavatai ran the position for the majority of their career, but it hasn’t translated well in the past three seasons since they can’t stay healthy nor consistent. So, they turn to sophomore Teddy Gleaton in the new era. If he and the coach get the offense moving, the Midshipmen could find themselves in a bowl and maybe win more than six games with a lenient schedule that doesn’t include Tulane or UTSA.

TEMPLE OWLS

Quarterback EJ Warner (Kurt Warner’s son) could be the future for Temple. He’s proven himself last season, although the sophomore could learn to cut down on interceptions after throwing 12 last season. There should be a running back by committee this season led by Edward Saydee, and the receiving corps should have plenty of depth, including Colorado State transfer Dante Wright. Defense could struggle out the gate because of their defensive line being a sore spot, so someone must step up to slow the ground game. Temple has work cut out for them, but capitalizing on their first three games will go a long way in seeing what the future holds in coach Stan Drayton’s second season.

USF BULLS

USF struggled in all but one game last season, and Alex Golesh has a lot of work cut out for him in his first season as a head coach. Senior quarterback Gerry Bohanon leads an offense that did their best to keep USF’s offense upright last season. He started seven games before going down with a season-ending injury. However, redshirt freshmen Byrum Brown battles for the starting job in the Bulls rebuilding offense. Scrapping the whole thing and starting from scratch seems like the best idea if they’re going that direction with Brown. Coach Golesh inherits a defense that was one of the worst in the country despite the majority of the defensive roster returning. What’s worse is that linebacker and leader Antonio Grier transferred to Arkansas. The Bulls look to rebuild for a while, so don’t expect any surprises for a couple of seasons.

CHARLOTTE 49ERS

Charlotte jumps to the AAC conference in full rebuild mode. New coach Biff Poggi worked alongside Jim Harbaugh for three seasons before taking the job. There’s plenty of positives and praises about Poggi, so the transition should be no issue. He also acquired a boatload of transfers over the offseason to work with, but it’ll determine how long it’ll take to get up to speed and how much of a chance they have on their schedule that won’t be merciful. If I were Charlotte fans, just sit back, relax, and enjoy the rebuilding process. Quarterback Micah Bowens just transferred in after being around Oklahoma and Penn State, so that’s one positive building block whether he plays this season or next season.